27 October 2023
The event was held at the Stanisław Kostka Starowieyski Secondary School in Łaszczów. The participants were secondary school students from the county of Tomaszów Lubelski. The aim of the meeting was to familiarize young people with the demographic problems that most European Union (EU) countries are struggling with. About 50 students from several schools took part in the event. Their teachers also accompanied them and eagerly joined the discussion.
I started the meeting by presenting the assumptions of the project and the activities of the Central European Academy. It was my purpose that the title of my speech referred to the main topic of the research conducted within the Central European Professors’ Network. The presented issues concerned all European Union countries with particular emphasis on the situation in Poland.
The presentation began by describing the concept of demography. Furthermore, I pointed out that the aging of the population is a long-term trend that began in Europe several decades ago. This tendency is noticeable in the transformation of the age structure of the population, and it is reflected in the growing number of older people compared to the decreasing number of people of working age in the entire population. Population size changes dynamically and is influenced by three demographic factors: births, deaths and demographic movements. These factors shape the population structure in the long term. Moreover, I tried to clarify that the proportion of people aged over 65 in the population is increasing in every EU member state. This phenomenon also affects countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and countries applying for the EU accession. The increase in the number of older people in the population is associated with the increase in lifespan and life expectancy. Low fertility rates also contributed to the aging process of societies, as lower birth rates resulted in a decrease in young people in the population.
I also presented conclusions from the research commissioned by the European Union. According to the report „Demographic Outlook for the European Union”, the demographic situation in the 27 EU member states has a significant impact on many areas, for instance the labor market, health care, pension systems and education. Recent changes have only reinforced the existing demographic trends: rapid population aging due to lower fertility rates and longer lifespans as well as the reduction of working-age population. The aging of the EU population is a challenge to the labor market due to the decrease of the working-age population.
According to Eurostat research conducted in 2023, in the beginning of January 2022, the population of the European Union was 446.7 million, while on January 1, 2023, this number increased to 448.4 million people. The observed population growth can be largely attributed to the increased migration movements after COVID-19 and the mass influx of Ukrainian citizens who received temporary protection status in EU countries as a result of the Russian invasion in February 2022. The rate of population growth has gradually slowed down in recent decades. Between 2005 and 2022, the average EU population growth was estimated to be around 0.8 million people per year as opposed to the average increase of around 3.0 million people per year in the 1960s. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU’s population has declined rapidly. In 2020, the population in the common block decreased by approximately half a million people, and in 2021 by almost 0.3 million people. Now the population began to increase again. In 2022, there were 1.7 million more people in the EU than in the previous year. Although the overall EU population increased in 2022, not all member states noticed population growth. Individually, seven countries confirmed a decline in their population rate in 2022. The population of Bulgaria shrank the fastest, where the number of inhabitants decreased by 5.7% in 2022. The second country was Poland. The Eurostat data shows that in the beginning of 2023, 36.75 million people lived in Poland, while a year earlier the population was estimated to be 37.65 million people. In 2022, the population in Poland diminished by 2.4%.
In absolute amount, the largest decrease was noted in Poland, where the population diminished by 900 511 people. The next countries were Bulgaria with a decrease of 391 227 people and Italy, where the population shrank by 179 419 people. The smallest reduction was noted in Slovakia, where the population decreased by 5,920 people. Increases were verified in the remaining 20 countries, with the largest growths in Germany (1,121,721 people) and the smallest in Latvia (7,251 people).
After the presentation, which lasted about 40 minutes, there was a discussion during which students asked numerous questions and made their remarks on the current situation.
Bibliography:
European Parliament, Demographic Outlook for the European Union 2021 – https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/690528/EPRS_STU(2021)690528_EN.pdf (accessed 20/10/2023).
Kancelaria Senatu – Biuro Analiz Dokumentacji i Korespondencji, Starzenie się ludności w Unii Europejskiej – stan obecny i prognoza Opracowania tematyczne OT–662 – https://www.senat.gov.pl/gfx/senat/pl/senatopracowania/160/plik/ot-662.pdf (accessed October 21, 2023)
Lipczyński T., Populacja UE znów rośnie. Polska odnotowała jeden z największych spadków [MAPA] – https://forsal.pl/gospodarka/demografia/artykuly/8759983,populacja-w-ue-znow-rosnie-w-polsce-spada-eurostat.html (accessed 23/10/2023 ).
Raport PE: więcej ludzi w UE umiera, zwłaszcza na konkretnych obszarach – https://samorzad.pap.pl/kategoria/europap-news/raport-pe-wiecej-ludzi-w-ue-umiera-zwlaszcza-na-konkretnych-obszarach
